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System for the Ten To Follow Jumps Competition    
  2014-15 Jumps        2013-14 Jumps        Overall summary        Contact        Earlier seasons  
 
  
NEWS 19.10.2014 - This page was already gearing up, as will be seen below, for another much-awaited crack at the terrific Tote Ten to Follow Jumps Competition when the painful news was heard, during today's Sunday Forum on At The Races, that the annual TTF competition, which has been with us for 21 years, will not run this Jumps season (so may have been killed off for good).  It's a sad day for all TTF fans.  The competition held a unique position with many discerning punters as the one and only "thinking man's lottery."  There is nothing else that can ever brighten up the long, cold, grey, miserable winter months in quite the way the Tote/Racing Post TTF did.  It also means, for the followers of this site, that the free Capital Ratings' TTF system, which almost died in 2012 until brought back to life here, and was thus looking forward to a remarkable 15th season online, will now finally become just one more dead piece of internet history.  RIP.
  
       
  2014-15 Jumps Season  
       
  12th October 2014:  On this page is the free system for fans of the Racing Post's popular Ten To Follow Competition.  Invented by Capital Ratings, the system was posted online by them every season from 2001 until 2012, when they retired.  For each Jumps season since then, their system has appeared here at this new home.

There is a brief description of the system just below this note - and more information at the very bottom of this page.  If you have no past experience of their system, you can see how it performed in previous seasons by following the blue links above.

The big table below is a template for determining which 32 horses (from a master list of 400) will qualify for  >>
   the system.  The template and rules therein form the core component of the system.

The list of 32 system qualifiers in column 3 will be finalised on this page by the second week of November, 2014, before the deadline for making entries.  Also available is a blank template which can be filled in by users on their own computer screens with horses of their own choosing - download blank template.

To perm your lines of ten horses from the shortlist, start with brown Perming Note PN1 in col 3 and take it from there.  If you've never entered the TTF competition before, see footnote 3 for how to do it.

Latest (and last) page-changes' upload: 20.10.2014.
 
 
         
  About the system:  The competition's master list of 400 horses to choose from is automatically reduced to just 32 horses max by the purple rules in col 4 below.  The qualifiers' names go in col 3.  The names are divided into five subgroups to aid practical perming and ensure efficient structuring of every line entered.  The horses should be permed into lines of ten using the  >>   brown rules in col 3.  Other rules are elsewhere in the table, or are accessed by blue links in the table.  Year after year, the resultant shortlists have contained the horses needed to win big prizes in the competition.  Being able to disregard all the other 368 horses not in the system's shortlist is potentially a major strategic advantage for all users of the system.  

  Col 2 Col 3 (The shortlist) Col 4
Sel
Nos
Categories
(Type of Jumper)
Enter upto 32 horses' names in the 36 spaces provided
Brown text in col 3 = perming instructions.
Rules for picking horses to go in column 3 each November
  Col 2 rule Col 3 rule  

1,
2,

2m Hrdlrs - Chmpn Hdl types.

Up to 4 sels rqd in this category.

4-6yo's preferred age.
Perming Notes...

PN1  When entering the TTF in November, for each line of ten, start by choosing any two horses from the first four rows below, then proceed down to brown note PN2 for your next two, and so on thro' to PN6.

    No.    Name        Age   Trainer
0 1623  HorseName 5      Pipe (a specimen row)
1 1xxx 
2 1xxx  The New One 6  Twiston-Davies
3 1xxx  Jezki 6  Ir/Harrington
4 1xxx  
Each November, go to www.oddschecker.com, in their Ante-Post section use their latest possible betting grid for the next Champion Hurdle to pick 4 quality, fancied, 2m-hurdle types to go in the block left.  If you don't fancy four leave a blank row where the bypassed horse would have been.  More hurdlers, of any type, may be entered in the bottom Misc section.  Where to find the betting grids - see footnote 4.

3,
4,

Up to 8 sels rqd for this 3-part sctn.

2m Chsrs - Qn Mother Chase types.

5-8yo preferred.
PN2 ...choose two sels from the eight rows below (including the empty w/c row pro-rata), then continue to PN3...

1 1xxx  Sprinter Sacre 8  Henderson
2 xxxx  Sire de Grugy 7  Moore
5 1xxx 
8 1xxx 
In November, use oddschecker's latest ante-post grid for the Queen Mother Chase to pick four quality, fancied, 2m-chase types for the block left.  If you don't fancy four leave a blank row where the bypassed horse would have been.
** See Wildcard rule.
  2m Nov Chasers - Arkle Trophy types.
5-8yo preferred.
3 1xxx 
6 1xxx 
In November, use oddschecker's latest ante-post grids for the Arkle and RSA Chase to pick 2 pairs of quality, fancied, novice chasers for the blocks left.  Additional NCs may be considered for the bottom Misc section.
  3m Nov Chasers - 3m RSA types.
5-9yo preferred.
4 1xxx 
7 1xxx 

5,

2½m Hcp Chsrs - Paddy Power types.

Up to 4 sels rqd for this block.

5-9yo preferred.

This block's sel or w/c2 = Star Horse double Tote odds.
PN3 ...choose one sel from the four rows below (including any empty w/c row as a sel pro-rata), then continue down to PN4...

1 1xxx 
2 1xxx  
3 1xxx 
4 1xxx

# Each line's sel or any w/c from this PPGC group scores Star Horse pts for the purpose of monitoring system performance.
In November, for the block left, pick the first four from the latest possible oddschecker ante-post grid for the Paddy Power GC - subject to...
PPGC & Ryanair rule,
Star Horse rule and
Late Entries rule.

* See Wildcard rule.

6,
7,
8,
Up to 12 sels rqd for this 3-part sctn.

3m Chsrs - King George VI Chase types.

5-10yo preferred.
PN4 ...choose three sels from the twelve rows below (including empty w/c rows pro-rata), then continue to PN5...

1 1xxx  Silviniaco Conti 8  Nicholls
4 1xxx  Simonsig 8  Henderson [off from 20.12.13 with leg injry]
7 1xxx  Cue Card 8  Tizzard [off from 6.3.14 with pelvis frctr]
9 1xxx  Champagne Fever 7  Ir/Mullins
King George, Chelt Gold Cup and Hennessy types.  In November, home-in on the first four or so horses in oddschecker's latest ante-post grids, for each of those three races, to fill the three blocks left.  If you do not fancy as many as four of the contenders for any of the three blocks, leave one or two blank rows somewhere.  It often happens one or more of these horses will qualify for more than one block - when that occurs, one of the duplications must be left blank (to be used as a 'linked wildcard' opportunity).

** See 3m+ Chasers rule.
** See Linked Wildcard rule.
  3¼m Chsrs - Chelt Gold Cup types.

5-10yo preferred.
2 1xxx 
5 1xxx  Bobs Worth 9  Henderson
8 1xxx  w/c** (linked with Silviniaco Conti in GC block)
10 1xxx 

3¼m Hcp Chsrs - Hennessy GC types.

5-10yo preferred.
3 1xxx 
6 1xxx  
11 1xxx 
12 1xxx  

9,
10.

Misc.


Up to 8 sels rqd for this two-block sctn.

NH pref 4-6yo
SH pref 5-7yo
NC pref 5-8yo
SC pref 6-11yo


 
PN5 ...choose two sels from the final eight rows below (including the empty w/c row pro-rata), then continue down to final note PN6...

1 1xxx  More Of That 6H  O'Neill
2 1xxx  Dynaste 8C  Pipe
3 1xxx 
4 1xxx 

5 1xxx 
6  
7 1xxx 
8 1xxx

Also see GN rule and Betting rule.
In November, use oddschecker's latest ante-post grid for the World Hurdle for a quality staying hurdler to go at position 1.  If you fancy a second SH, put it in posn. 5.  Leaving a blank row in the Misc section is good strategy.  For the other Misc sels, see the Misc Sctn rule.  Leave at least four blank rows overall so as to give 32 named sels. max.  Put names in the blank rows only after perming the blanks pro-rata into your lines, as a final, line fine-tuning step.

* See Wildcard rule.
PN6 ...it is recommended, in your first four lines, that you include all 32 named horses from the above shortlist, putting a different 8 names in each of those first four lines, and leave two scattered blanks in each of those four lines (for later wildcard fine-tuning).  By so covering every horse at least once, that will guarantee you the interest of at least one runner in virtually every key race right through the season and will also guarantee you will have every single scoring horse from the shortlist at least once somewhere in your overall entry.  To fill the two wildcard blanks in each of those first four lines, pull in two desirable horses from the other 24 named horses not in the line in question.  In each of those first four lines, mix stronger horses with more speculative horses - don't go all strong in two lines and all weak in the other two - or it's 40 down the drain straight away as half of the most-hyped horses from last season will almost always fail to deliver this season.  Then, for your lines 5, 6, 7 etc., start at note PN1 each time and start picking fresh lines of ten differing horses.  In these further lines, start whittling out your personal lesser fancies so as to pull in more of your personal stronger fancies, along with some obligatory pro-rata blanks.  Finally, as a very last step, start to fill in all those wildcard blanks in your lines, still using only horses from somewhere in the 32-horse shortlist, so as to fine-tune all lines with blanks in them, in accordance with the Wildcard rule.  Also check out Footnote 5 at the end of this page.

Disclaimer      Read more on perming (external link).
Acknowledgement:  This system for the TTF competition was invented by Capital Ratings.

Key to abbreviations possibly used in the above table:-

a = Aintree result (except if n = ran in Grand National)    c = Cheltenham result at this season's Festival    C = Chaser    col = column    f = favourite   GC = Gold Cup    H = Hurdle or Hurdlerr    m = mare (rest are geldings)    K = knuckled on landing (as opposed to falling)    n = result in Grand National    NC = Novice Chaser    NH = Novice Hurdler    prob = probably    SC = Staying Chaser    Sel = selection    SH = Staying Hurdler    Trnr = trainer    yo = years old at start of season    in red = any November remarks against a horse in col 3 in red are a definite negative for the competition generally speaking, but not an automatic bar to using the horse concerned in entries.


The best, rule-compliant line from the above shortlist, at any stage, will be as below...
 
Type Best ten system horses    Pts  
2m hurdlers  (2 sels per line)   0.0
  0.0
QM, Arkle & RSA Chase types or w/c1  (2 sels per line)   0.0
  0.0
Paddy Power sel or w/c2  (1 sel per line).  This block's sel or w/c gets Star Horse points   0.0
3m+ chasers or w/c3  (3 sels per line)   0.0
  0.0
  0.0
Misc e.g. NH, NC, SH, SC, or w/c4  (2 sels per line)   0.0
  0.0
  Points for above ten horses currently = 0.0
TTF leader's score at same stage = 0.0
  10th place score = 0.0

Running Comments (latest first) Back to top
23.11.14 - xxx pts - Running comments on the progress of the TTF competition and the performance of the system will start to appear here after the running of the Hennessy Gold Cup at the end of November.


Footnotes
How to use Capital Ratings' System for the Ten To Follow Competition
1.  Users of the system can either take the true system qualifiers straight from the table above or they can start off with a blank template and type in horses' names on their own computer screens.  The blank template is exactly the same as the main table shown above - but without any horses' names in it.  Download blank template now for use in this or future seasons.  After unzipping the download, read the included 'info.txt' file first.
2.  In the downloaded blank template, write or type the names of not more than 32 horses in the 36 spaces available in column 3.  Horses for the blank template should be selected by adhering as far as possible to the rules in purple text in column 4.  These rules ensure all followers will start off with the same base selections to quite a high degree.  The purple rules in col 4 are practically identical to Capital Ratings' original selection rules (just the odd update here and there).
3.  You can enter the Ten To Follow competition by post or online.  To enter by post, use the postal entry forms which are printed in the Racing Post on several days a week from about the third week in October each week.  Postal entries cost 12 a line.  Postal entries were brought back by popular demand from 2013-14.  To enter online, go to www.tentofollow.com.  Online entries cost 10 per line.  The first two weeks in November each year form a hectic but fun two-week window for finalising lines and entering them.
4.  The system obtains its qualifiers each November from the very purposeful ante-post betting grids at oddschecker.com.  To locate their grids, go to www.oddschecker.com, look down the left hand side of the first page for a link labelled "Horse Racing" and click-it, at the new page scroll down until reaching, on the left hand side, a heading "Ante-Post Racing", just beneath that click either "National Hunt" or "Cheltenham Festival", then click the All Odds buttons to see the price grids for the system's key races.  The 'National Hunt' link gives access, in early November, to betting grids for three bonus-point races, namely the Paddy Power Gold Cup, Hennessy Gold Cup and the King George.  The 'Cheltenham Festival' link gives access to price-grids for another seven bonus-point races, namely the Arkle NC, Champion Hurdle,  RSA NC, Champion Chase, Ryanair Chase, World Hurdle and Gold Cup, plus grids for all the other, non-bonus 25-point Festival races.  In the grids, concentrate on the leading horses with the shortest averaged prices, ignoring any odd-looking betting-exchange prices down the right hand side of each grid.  Just occasionally, it may look as though a grid has listed a couple of horses in the wrong order in the grid based on the prices on offer.  If that happens, work out the precise averaged-price for both horses to determine their proper pecking order in the grid.  Most grids will be pretty stable in the week before the deadline for entering the TTF but the odd couple of grids might be quite volatile, especially the grids for the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Hennessy Gold Cup - so leave making the choices from any volatile grids as late as is practicable.
5.  System users should enter multiple lines of ten, at least a dozen lines, to ensure a reasonable amount of interest through the whole season.  The tens should be picked in accordance with brown perming-note PN6 in column 3 in the shortlist.  Forget about looking outside of the shortlist for a possible 'dark horse' that nobody else will have.  There is almost never any need to think outside the box in this competition in order to win it.  Instead, work on the assumption that the shortlist will contain multiple rule-compliant winning lines in there somewhere - and concentrate all your skill and judgement on trying to perm one of those all-conquering lines from the shortlist into your entry.  No absolute guarantee, of course, that there always will be any winning lines in the shortlist but the system was terribly consistent over a span of 14 seasons when posted annually by its inventors, Capital Ratings - and it has continued that trend in equally strong fashion at this new home.



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