A System for the Ten to Follow Jumps Competion 2013-14  
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  On this page: Intro, shortlist table, rules, results, best line & progress reports for 2013-14  
       
  October 2013:  The free racing system featured on this page is the same one that was invented by Capital Ratings for the Ten To Follow racing competition run by the Racing Post and Totesport.  Their system appeared online continually for 11 years, from 2001 until 2012 when the chaps at Capital Ratings retired.  The system lives on, here, thanks to a keen follower.

There is a brief description of their system just below this note - and more information at the very bottom of this page.  If you have no past experience of Capital Ratings' TTF system, it may help if you follow the links above labelled Home and Last Jumps Season.  The big table below is the same shortlist template which formed the core of their online system.  >>
   A blank version of the shortlist template is available for individual use - download blank template.

For how to enter the TTF each November, see footnote 3.

For how to perm the system's horses, start with brown note PN6 in col 3 and take it from there.

The final list of 32 qualifiers for 2013-14, shown in col 3 below, was posted here on Thur, 14th Nov 2013 at 5pm.

Final update 6.4.14: All done for another season - and another good performance by the system: View system's final best line, with comments below that.
 
 
         
  About the system:  The competition's daunting master list of 400 horses is systematically reduced to just 32 horses max by the purple rules in col 4 below.  The qualifiers' names go in col 3.  The names are divided into five subgroups to aid economic perming and ensure efficient structuring of every line entered.  The horses shortlisted are permed into lines of ten using the  >>   brown rules in col 3.  Further rules are contained in the table, or are accessed by blue links in the table.  Year after year, the resultant shortlists have contained ample horses needed to win big prizes in the competition.  Being able to disregard the 368 horses not in the shortlist is potentially a major strategic advantage for all users of the system.  

  Col 2 Col 3 (The Shortlist) Col 4
Sel
Nos
Categories
(Type of Jumper)
Enter up to 32 horses' names in the 36 spaces provided
Brown text in col 3 = perming instructions.
[26.1f] = example points scored and if favourite.
Blue = best ten.
[ / ] = results in comp before/after mid Jan.
Rules for picking horses to go in column 3 each November
  Col 2 rule Col 3 rule  

1,
2,

2m Hrdlrs - Chmpn Hdl types.

Up to 4 sels rqd in this category.

4-6yo's preferred age.
Perming Notes...
Read note PN6 first, then come back to this initial note.
PN1  When entering the TTF in November, for each line of ten, choose any two horses from the first four rows below, then proceed down to brown notes (2), (3) etc.


    No.    Name        Age   Trainer
0 1623  HorseName 5      Pipe (specimen row)
1 1349  The New One 5  Twiston-Davies [51.8f 1.1f / c1.4 a51.5f]
2 1232  Our Conor 4  Ir/Hughes [L / 12 cF, dead]
3 1153  Hurricane Fly 9  Ir/Mullins [26.1f 26.8f / 51.5cLf]
4 1215  My Tent Or Yours 6  Henderson [26.6f 27.3 / 11.3c13.7]
Each November, go to www.oddschecker.com, in their Ante-Post section use their latest possible betting grid for the next Champion Hurdle to pick 4 quality, fancied, 2m-hurdle types to go in the block left.  If you don't fancy four leave a blank row where the bypassed horse would have been.  More hurdlers, of any type, may be entered in the bottom Misc section.  Where to find the betting grids - see footnote 5.

3,
4,

Up to 8 sels rqd for this 3-part sctn.

2m Chsrs - Qn Mother Chase types.

5-8yo preferred.
PN2 ...take any two from the eight rows below, including the empty w/c row pro-rata, then continue to PN3...

1 1329  Sprinter Sacre 7  Henderson [6 Dec, bad scope. Pf, 28 Dec, heart sync problem.23 Feb, out.]
2 xxxx  w/c1* [ ]
5 1313  Simonsig 7  Henderson [20 Dec, trnr said out. / ]
8 1316  Sire de Grugy 7  Moore [1.227.528.226.9f c53.5f]
In November, use oddschecker's latest ante-post grid for the Queen Mother Chase to pick four quality, fancied, 2m-chase types for the block left.  If you don't fancy four leave a blank row where the bypassed horse would have been.
** See Wildcard rule.
  2m Nov Chasers - Arkle Trophy types.
5-8yo preferred.
3 1065  Champagne Fever 6  Ir/Mullins [11.5f / c13.6f]
6 1137  Grandouet 6  Henderson [L 2.2 1.1f / cL aL]
In November, use oddschecker's latest ante-post grids for the Arkle and RSA Chase to pick 2 pairs of quality, fancied, novice chasers for the blocks left.  Additional NCs may be considered for the bottom Misc section.
  3m Nov Chasers - 3m RSA types.
5-9yo preferred.
4 1004  African Gold 5  Twiston-Davies [Lf Lf / L]
7 1321  Smad Place 6  King [ / 13.1 c14.2jf]

5,

2½m Hcp Chsrs - Paddy Power types.

Up to 4 sels rqd for this block.

5-9yo preferred.

This block's sel or w/c2 = Star Horse double Tote odds.
PN3 ...take any one from the four rows below, including the empty w/c row pro-rata, then continue down to PN4...

1 1066  Champion Court 8  Keighley sm trnr [Lf 2.5+2.5# U / 1.7+1.7cL a0]
2 xxxx  w/c2** (in lieu of Johns Spirit W, not in TTF)
3 1023  Ballynagour 7 Pipe from PPGC [P / c40.5+15.5# a2.3+2.3#]
4 1258  Rajdhani Express 6  Henderson [L / c4.6+4.6# aLf]

# Each line's sel or w/c2 from this PPGC group scores Star Horse pts for the purpose of monitoring system performance.
In November, for the block left, pick the first four from the latest possible oddschecker ante-post grid for the Paddy Power GC - subject to...
PPGC & Ryanair rule,
Star Horse rule and
Late Entries rule.

* See Wildcard rule.

6,
7,
8,
Up to 12 sels rqd for this 3-part sctn.

3m Chsrs - King George VI Chase types.

5-10yo preferred.
PN4 ...take any three from the twelve rows below, including the empty w/c row pro-rata, then continue to PN5...

1 1101  Dynaste 7  D Pipe [2.0 Ljf / 13 Jan, sore behind after Kg Grg. c53.5f a1.4f]
4 1311  Silviniaco Conti 7  Nicholls [1.6 55.9cL a28.1]
7 1088  Cue Card 7  Tizzard [34.8 13.1jf / 25 Apr, back strain, misses Chelt, prob out.  6 Mar, pelvis frctr, out]
9 1174  Long Run 8  Henderson [LU / 13.3f, 27 Feb, trnr says misses Chelt. agnL]
King George, Chelt Gold Cup and Hennessy types.  In November, home-in on the first four or so horses in oddschecker's latest ante-post grids, for each of those three races, to fill the three blocks left.  If you do not fancy as many as four of the contenders for any of the three blocks, leave one or two blank rows somewhere.  It often happens one or more of these horses will qualify for more than one block - when that occurs, one of the duplications must be left blank (to be used as a 'linked wildcard' opportunity).

** See 3m+ Chasers rule.
** See Linked Wildcard rule.
  3¼m Chsrs - Chelt Gold Cup types.

5-10yo preferred.
2 1037  Bobs Worth 8  Henderson [Lf 28.4jf / cLf]
5 1314  Sir Des Champs 7  Ir/Mullins [F Ljf, 3 Jan, out]
8 xxxx  w/c3** (linked with Silviniaco Conti in KG block) [ ]
10 1115  First Lieutenant 8  Ir/Morris [2.0 / 3f, c nr, virus, aL]

3¼m Hcp Chsrs - Hennessy GC types.

5-10yo preferred.
3 1156  Invictus 7  King [L, 3 Dec, lm, prob out / ]
6 1282  Rocky Creek  7  Nicholls [14.81.8f agnL]
11 1141  Hadrian's Approach 6  Henderson [U 14.9c0]
12 1233  Our Father 7  Pipe [Lf / L cL agnL]

9,
10.

Misc.


Up to 8 sels rqd for this two-block sctn.

NH pref 4-6yo
SH pref 5-7yo
NC pref 5-8yo
SC pref 6-11yo


 
PN5 ...take any two from the final eight rows below, including the empty w/c row pro-rata, then continue down to final note PN6...

1 1031  Big Buck's 10SH  Nicholls [-- / 3f cL]
2 xxxx  w/c4* [ ]
3 1009  Annie Power 5mH  Ir/Mullins [26.3f 16.4f / 16.1c13.5f]
4 1398  Zarkandar 6H  Nicholls [2 13.7 2 / 1.1 cL aL]

5 1013  At Fishers Cross 6SH  Curtis [Lf Uf / 2.1 c2.1 a1.6f]
6 1158  Jezki 5H  Ir/Harrington [26.6f 1.5 / L c61]
7 1006  Al Ferof 8C  Nicholls [21.1f 2.3 / 1.2cL]
8 1118  Flemenstar 8C  Martin [7 Dec, knocked. 16 Dec, poss out. 1 Jan, out]

Also see GN rule and Betting rule.
In November, use oddschecker's latest ante-post grid for the World Hurdle for a quality staying hurdler to go at position 1.  If you fancy a second SH, put it in posn. 5.  Leaving a blank row in the Misc section is good strategy.  For the other 5 or 6 Misc sels, see the Misc Sctn rule.  Leave at least four blank rows overall so as to give 32 named sels. max.  Put names in the blank rows only after perming the blanks pro-rata into your lines, as a final fine-tuning step.

* See Wildcard rule.
PN6 ...it is recommended, in your first four lines, that you include all 32 named horses from the above shortlist.  Put a different 8 names, plus 2 scattered blanks for wildcard fine-tuning, in each of those first four lines.  By so covering every horse at least once, that will guarantee you the interest of at least one runner in virtually every key race right through the season and will also guarantee you will have every scoring horse in the shortlist at least once somewhere in your overall entry.  To fill the two wildcard blanks in each of those first four lines, pull in two desirable horses from the other 24 named horses not in the line in question.  In each of those first four lines, mix stronger horses with more speculative horses - don't go all strong in two lines and all weak in the other two - or it's 40 down the drain straight away as half the most-hyped horses from last season will fail to deliver the following season.  Then, for your lines 5, 6, 7 etc., start at note PN1 each time and start picking fresh lines of ten differing horses.  In these further lines, start whittling out your personal lesser fancies so as to pull in more of your personal stronger fancies, along with some obligatory pro-rata blanks.  Finally, as a very last step, start to fill in all those wildcard blanks in your lines, still using only horses from somewhere in the 32-horse shortlist, so as to fine-tune all lines with blanks in them, in accordance with the Wildcard rule.  Also check out Footnote 4 at the end of this page.

Disclaimer   Read more on perming.
Acknowledgement:  The above table is hijacked from a template which previously formed part of Capital Ratings' online TTF system.

Key to abbreviations possibly used in the above table:-

a = Aintree result at Grand National meeting    agn = Aintree result, ran in Grand National    c = Cheltenham result at this season's Festival    C = Chaser    col = column    f = favourite   GC = Gold Cup    H = Hurdle or Hurdlerr    m = mare    K = knuckled on landing (as opposed to falling)    NC = Novice Chaser    NH = Novice Hurdler    prob = probably    SC = Staying Chaser    Sel = selection    SH = Staying Hurdler    Trnr = trainer    yo = years old at start of season    in red = any November remarks against a horse in col 3 in red are a definite negative for the competition generally speaking, but not an automatic bar to using the horse concerned in entries.


A good, rule-compliant line from the above shortlist was as below...
 
Type Best ten system horses    Pts  
2m hurdlers  (2 sels per line) The New One 105.5
Hurricane Fly
or My Tent Or Yours 78.8, Our Connor 12
104.4
QM, Arkle & RSA Chase types or w/c1  (2 sels per line) Smad Place
(or Champagne Fever 25.1, Grandouet 3.3, or w/c1)
27.3
Sire de Grugy 137.3
Paddy Power sel or w/c2  (1 sel per line).  This block's sel or w/c gets Star Horse points Ballynagour
(or Radjhani Express 9.2, Champion Court 8.4, or w/c2)
60.6
3m+ chasers or w/c3  (3 sels per line) Dynaste 56.9
Silviniaco Conti 85.6
Cue Card
(or Bobs Worth 28.4, Rocky Creek 16.6, Hadrian's Approach 14.9, First Lieutenant 2 or w/c3)
47.9
Misc e.g. NH, NC, SH, SC, or w/c4  (2 sels per line) Annie Power
(or Al Ferof 24.6, Zarkandar 14.8, At Fishers Cross 5.8 or w/c4)
72.3
Jezki 89.1
  Above system line (highlighted horses)  = 787.2
The winner, The Warren's final score = 752.1
  10th place score =  664.3

Running Comments (latest first) - mimicking the style established in past times by Capital Ratings Back to top
05.04.14 - 787.2 pts - Aintree Day 3 - This was only the second time this site has flown the flag for the old, popular, Capital Ratings' Ten To Follow system.  But, based on how well it's gone again, it will be back for a third run next season - so please bookmark this page, if you haven't already done so, and check back here at the end of October, 2014, for another bash.
   When the competition ended today, there were at least fourteen block-perfect lines from the system's shortlist which scored more than the 752.1 points that won The Warren the 125K first prize.  There were at least another fifteen lines with a single-wildcard which could also have scored more than 752.1 points.  That means enough possible lines by the system to fill at least the first twenty-nine places on the competition's final leaderboard.
   With a massive gap between the scores of the system's best-possible lines and the score of the tenth-placed winner (664.3), it follows there were literally hundreds of rule-compliant lines of ten in the shortlist which would have scored more than 664.3.  With so many opportunities available to win a prize of some sort, not forgetting a possible 10K monthly prize last December, it seems unreal that no system follower managed to put one of these prize-worthy lines together in their entries back in November.  That aside, though, this was yet another super-consistent performance by Capital Ratings' Ten To Follow system.  Roll on next Jumps season and another try!
04.04.14 - 787.2 pts - Aintree Day 2 - Only three horses from the shortlist ran today, two unplaced plus Ballynagour only third - though for a few place-only points which ensured nobody could now finish with a higher score than would have been possible using Capital Ratings' system. 
   The real leader The Warren was on 752.1.
03.04.14 - 782.1 pts - Aintree Day 1 - As many as thirteen horses from the system's shortlist are likely to run at this, the final meeting.  That is almost certainly a record for the system.  This is due to the unusual, in fact unprecedented occurrence of three runners from the shortlist in the concluding Grand National event in two days' time.
   On the meeting's opening day today, the shortlist had five runners, all in the principal two races, giving both winners (The New One and Silviniaco Conte and a second (Dynaste)).  This was the day when The New One belatedly confirmed his No 1 ranking in the system's 2m-Hurdlers' block when lifting the 50 points in the Aintree Hurdle, taking the horse's total for the season to 105.5 points [more than Hurricane Fly and not at all bad for a hurdler that didn't win this season's Champion Hurdle!].
   The competition's real leader, The Warren, is 30.5 points behind the system's current best line - but he is so far ahead of everybody else in the competition that the scaled-down 125K first prize looks to be his.
14.03.14 - 726.1 pts - Cheltenham Day 4 - There were only two horses from the shortlist running on the final day of what had been another fabulous Cheltenham Festival, as always.  The two were, however, the first and second favourites for the day's only bonus race, the Cheltenham Gold Cup - so the shortlist had duly delivered with another of it's integral long-range objectives.
   Before the Gold Cup was run, the shortlist already contained lines that would be in the lead for the 10K prize for most points in March.  Victory for either Bobs Worth (fav) or Silviniaco Conti (2f) in the Gold Cup would have clinched the chance of a follower winning the 10K prize, at least in theory.  However, the pre-race leaderboard for the Monthly Prize, at www.tentofollow.com, showed there were some TTF danger horses, i.e. plenty of people with either Lord Windermere or On His Own.  So a small insurance bet on those two seemed the order of the day for yours truly, taking a lead from the system's betting rule.
   The finish of the race was memorable mainly for its two-pronged messiness.  The two market leaders probably thought they had the race won between them, as they fought out their own messy dual on the far side - only to be suddenly mugged by three outsiders charging up the nearside, having another messy duel all of their own.  [As for the speculative insurance bet, talk about getting things the wrong way round - this had to be a classic: a 20 place-only bet on winner Lord Windermere (20-1) and 15 each-way at 22-1 on the second, On His Own.]
   The system had entered day one at Cheltenham with a best possible line that was worth a 14 point lead over then leader Rogers8.  The system emerged from day four at Cheltenham with a best-possible line worth 726.1 points, representing a 55 point clear lead over the real-leader, The Warren, on 671.1.
   Of the horses trying to shake off the concrete clogs this year (i.e. no prep-run), seven of the nine lost.  Three started favourite, two of those lost.
   After Day 4, 22 horses from the shortlist had run at the Festival and exactly half were scorers (four winners, three in bonus races, plus seven placers).
   There were enough high-scoring lines in the shortlist to fill at least the first 23 places on the official leaderboard.  But no followers had any of them, worst luck.
13.03.14(2) - 726.1 pts - Cheltenham Day 3 - Ten horses from the shortlist ran today and half of them scored points, including Dynaste (53.5 pts winner of the Ryanair Chase), Annie Power (13.5 pts 2nd in the World Hurdle), and Ballynagour (earning a ridiculous 56 points, just for winning a handicap at 12-1, because of the stupid Star Horse extra-points rule).  That bumper tally took the system's best line through the 700 points' barrier, on 726.1.  The returning real-leader, The Warren, was well behind on 671.1, while there was another big gap back to the next best, Rogers8, frozen on 611.1.  The gap between the system's best line and the second person in the TTF (Rogers8) was a huge 115 points.  A stunning performance by the system.
   24 of the 32 named horses in the shortlist had now scored points, including 15 individual winners and 9 others with place-only points.
13.03.14(1) - Day 3: Ryanair Day - Today's leader of the TTF, before racing, is 'Rogers 8' on 611.1 points.  His hopes of retaining the lead hang tenuously on his original Paddy Power Gold Cup selection, Champion Court, which, instead of going for the easier, wide-open Ryanair Chase, is going for the later handicap chase off top weight on the same card.  [Update: Champion Court L]  The hopes of Roger8's nearest challenger, The Warren (on 602.6), look much stronger as they rest on both Dynaste in the Ryanair [W] plus the exciting Annie Power in the stayers' World Hurdle [useful 2nd].  While the challenger in 4th place also has a chance of a killer double with Oscar Whisky [not in the system's shortlist, L] and Al Ferof in the Ryanair [L].
12.03.14 - 637.9 pts - Cheltenham Day 2 - There were only two horses from the shortlist running today but they were in the day's two bonus races so were both very handy scorers, namely Smad Place, runner up in the RSA novices' chase and Sire de Grugy, winner of the Champion Chase.  The real leader was on 611.1.  A couple of lines by Robert Winchcole from Glasgow, who had earlier won the December 10K with a skilful line, had moved into the top ten in 6th and 7th places.
11.03.14 - 582.2 pts - Cheltenham Day 1 - There were eight runners from the shortlist today and four scored points, namely Champagne Fever, Jezki, My Tent Or Yours and The New One.  No points for the aged Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle (started favourite) but, with 104.4 points acquired in three other races before Cheltenham, the Fly had done its stuff for the system.
   Rogers8 was still the real leader on 557.6, now 26.6 pts less than the best possible line from the system's shortlist..
10.03.14 - Cheltenham Preview - With upwards of 400 points up for grabs at Cheltenham, the TTF competition will, as always, be won or lost at the Festival.  Cheltenham is a notorious graveyard for favourites.  Some years, fewer than four favourites win at the entire meeting.  This is why most, sometimes all of the TTF pacesetters going into Cheltenham can find they have been blown away at the end of the four days [Update: 7 were to lose their pre-Chelt top-ten place this year].
   This year, on the eve of Cheltenham, only 22 of the system's original 32 horses are expected to run over the four days, which is low.  But this includes at least one running in each of the seven 50-point bonus races - so the system has still done its duty in that respect.  Unfortunately, though, nine of the 22 go there without a prep run - which is a grim proportion (40%).  When these top horses don't bother to turn out, it's not just bad for the system and its followers.  It's very bad for the sport.  Big-name horses pull local feet through the gates of racecourses.  If the big names don't turn out during that informative 6-week prep-run window in Jan/Feb, it's the course attendances that also stand to suffer.  So, why were so many running scared this year?  After all, it was the mildest January and February there has ever been since the river Thames last froze over 200 years ago.  Okay, so there was some rain and some gales, of course, a lot of testing going, and some awful flooding for people living near rivers.  But no meetings were lost through snow, frost or cold.  In fact, there wasn't a hint of winter snow or ice anywhere south of northern towns like Newcastle or Sheffield - and even there it was really slight.  And, above all, the weather remained incredibly mild for the time of year throughout both months.
   The nine system horses unfortunately wearing the concrete boots this year are, in order of appearance: Champagne Fever, Grandouet, Hadrian's Approach, The New One, Dynaste, Rajdhani Express, Ballynagour, Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti.  The list of dread includes five forecast favourites.
07.03.14 - Obliged to informed reader Andrew Nicol for advising the Jumps first prize has been revised down from an earlier figure of 178,553 to only 124,987.  This is the smallest the Jumps prize has been for 19 years.
23.02.14 - 495.5 pts - Sadly no runners for the system the weekend just gone - which was effectively the last opportunity for any trainers to get a prep-run into their top horses before the Festival.
   The TTF gained a new leader, name of Rogers8 (not a system user), after a win in Ireland yesterday by On His Own.  Rogers8's magnificent score was 481.5, only 14 points less than the best possible line from the system's shortlist.
16.02.14 - 495.5 pts - After My Tent Or Yours' under-the-radar win today in a lowly 6K all-weather bumper at Kempton, the system's best-possible line was worth 22.5 points more than the real leader's score of 473.  There were now enough high-scoring lines in the shortlist to fill at least the first 50 places on the leaderboard.  Previous leader The Warren was back on top in the competition.
15.02.14 - 484.2 pts - Very disappointing that Zarkandar, from the system's Miscellaneous section, could not see off a modest lot at Wincanton for the 25 points today.
13.02.14 - 484.2 pts - The mighty Long Run sneaked in a prep-run at little Kelso today, earning a well overdue 13.3 points.  Nice.  Long Run's win meant 22 of the 32 named horses in the shortlist had now scored points (that's 13 individual winners plus 9 others with place-only points).
11.02.14 - 484.2 pts - The system had the right horse (the favourite) in both of last weekend's key races but neither was up to the job in the very testing conditions, namely Al Ferof, a distant 2nd for just 1.2 points and, in the final bonus race before the Festival, First Lieutenant, only third for zero points to some horse no person in the top 700 had had in a line.
   With the weekend's star prospect, Champagne Fever, again ducking out of a possible prep-run, it was left to the system's only other and least expected runner, Smad Place, to bring home a few countable points.
   Smad Place's win meant 21 of the 32 named horses in the shortlist had now scored points, so the build-up to Cheltenham, which was a mere four weeks away today, had gone well enough.
   The shortlist contained enough high-scoring lines to fill at least the top 40 places on the leaderboard.  But GingerBeard, who is not a system user, remained the competition's actual leader albeit with an unchanged 467.5 points.
03.02.14 - 482.6 pts - The weekend just gone was the first one all season with no runner from the shortlist.  The modest fare included a couple of 15-point races won by Oscar Whisky and Arvika Ligeonniere.  Only one person in the top 30, namely Gingerbeard, had Arvika - which moved him into first place for real.  His line was unusual in that it contained no selection for the Paddy Power GC, Hennessy GC or Ryanair bonus chases.  You wouldn't see that in any normal season.  The system's shortlist contained at least 16 lines scoring more than GingerBeard's handsome total of 467.5 points.
27.01.14 - 482.6 pts - After wins by Annie Power and Hurricane Fly over the weekend just gone, the system's shortlist contained enough high-scoring lines to fill at least the first 46 places on the leaderboard.  Five of the top ten leaders in the competition had lines that contained only horses that featured in the system's shortlist - though it's not thought any were actual users of the system.  The Warren remained the real leader, now up to 461.7 pts.
20.01.14 - 415.0 pts - The win by Sire de Grugy two days ago really shook up the TTF leaderboard.  It was now down to only four people left in the top thirty with Triola d'Alene (at 15, 17, 22 & 23).  It was once nearly all thirty!.  So Triola had suddenly gone from being the worst scare-horse in the 20-year history of the Ten To Follow (by earning 100 points from winning just one race) to being a horse there may be no point in having.
   The new real leader after SdG's win was The Warren on 391.2.  His ten horses were all in the system's shortlist.  Previous leader Roger27 remained on 372.1 pts - and slipped to 17th.
   The system's shortlist now contained enough high-scoring lines to fill at least the first 64 places on the leaderboard, impressive enough - but there had been no indication any followers were among the real leaders, unfortunately.
12.01.14 - 388.1 pts - Some small Tote-place points for Champion Court yesterday ensured the system's shortlist continued to contain enough unique, high-scoring lines to fill at least the first 22 places on the leaderboard.  No movement for the real leader, Roger27, who remained on 372.1 pts.
   Now down to only five people left in the top thirty with Triola d'Alene.  But three of them were up in the top four on the leaderboard and they were proving difficult to dispose of in real life.
   Has any reader yet heard what the first prize will be this season?  [Update 3.2.14:  First prize for 2013/14 will be 178,553*.
* Figure subsequently revised down, see entry for 07.03.14.
01.01.14 - 384.7 pts - Annie Power's win on New Year's Day was only worth 16.4 pts but it brought further signals that the speculators who kicked off with Hennessy winner Triolo d'Alene and its fantasy 100 pts were steadily having to make way for the more rational entries.  Only six people in the top 30 were now ones with Triola.
   Annie's win meant the system started the New Year with enough high-scoring lines to fill at least the first 22 places on the leaderboard above the real-leader who was on 372.1.
31.12.13 - December 10,000 Prize
Fourteen (nearly half) of the named horses in the system's shortlist scored points in December.  Between them, they supplied more than 28 different possible line-combinations from the shortlist capable of winning the December 10,000 prize outright (see summary table on the right).
   Capital Ratings' system traditionally performs strongly in the month of December, this being the fifth time in 13 years their system has provided followers with genuine opportunities to take a December prize.  That's consistency.
   This season, the 10K prize was actually won by Robert Winchcole from Glasgow.  Robert has been a keen TTF participant for many years - and a several-time winner, proving that skill, knowledge, strategy and inspired judgement definitely set this competition apart from any lottery.  It is not known if he bases any of his lines on Capital Ratings' system but there was no doubting he won the prize with a line of ten horses that could have come straight out of the system's shortlist - unlike the nine people behind him who probably didn't use the system as each of their lines contained from one to four horses not in the shortlist.

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   December 2013, 14 system scorers as below...
   The New One 52.9
   My Tent or Yours
or Hurricane Fly 26.8
27.2
   Grandouet or w/c1 3.3
   Sire de Grugy 55.7
   Champion Court
or w/c2 & Star points
5
   Bobs Worth 28.4
   Silviniaco Conti 55.9
   Hadrian's Approach
or Cue Card 13.1 or w/c3 or First Lieutenant 2.0
14.9
   Zarkandar
or w/c4 or Al Ferof 2.3
13.7
   Jezki 28.1
  Specimen system line, total =   285.1
  Actual winner's line, total =   280.9
29.12.13 - 368.3 pts - After Hurricane Fly's win in Ireland's Ryanair Hurdle today, at least four lines from the system's shortlist were worth more than the real leader's score of 357.9.  Two of those lines were worth 368.3 pts, another two were worth 363.6.  Many more, even higher combinations were possible if counting just one wildcard selection per line, as either wildcard 2 or wildcard 4.
28.12.13 - 366.8 pts - It was yesterday that some lines from the shortlist had gained more points than the competition's real leader for the first time this season.  That achievement was cemented today by Bobs Worth winning Ireland's Lexus Chase.  Twelve different horses from the shortlist had now won outright and another six had some place-points to their credit, meaning there was an abundance of high-scoring lines in the shortlist.
27.12.13 - 353.3 pts - It was disappointing that three odds-on favourites from the shortlist were beaten over the last two days (Champagne Fever, Grandouet and Sprinter Sacre).  But others that did score, yesterday, plus Sire de Grugy today, catapulted lines from the shortlist to scores that would be in pole position on the competition's leaderboard for the first time for the system this season.  And not just one line but at least eight possible lines with scores higher than the real leader's score of 338.6.
26.12.13 - 325.1 pts - A King George win for Silviniaco Conti over Cue Card and Al Ferof, plus a win for My Tent or Yours over The New One, saw the system's best-possible lines moving up to be worth at least 5th place on the leaderboard.
   Zugzwang on 338.6 became the first player in the competition without Triolo d'Alene to hold pole position.  In fact, ten people in the top fifteen were suddenly up there without any Triolo d'Alene.
18.12.13 - 241.0 pts - A midweek Xmas present of 14.9 points from Hadrian's Approach was enough to make the system's best half-dozen lines all worth at least ninth place on the leaderboard.  So far, ten different horses from the shortlist had won races.  Six others had scored place points.  So all appeared to be going to plan for the system despite the still-present threat from Triolo d'Alene,
15.12.13 - 225.6 pts - At last, after the weekend's results, the first fifteen on the competition's leaderboard no longer consisted only of people with Triolo d'Alene.  Zugzwang had broken their stranglehold, in at No. 8, whilst Catinhellschance was in at 15.  Then could come half-a-dozen possible lines from the system worth at least 16th place - also without Triolo, of course.  The unchanged real-leader was on 258.
14.12.13 - 228.1 pts - The New One took the International Hurdle (51.8 pts), with Zarkandar second (13.7 pts), both continuing the all-important good work of filling up the five blocks in the shortlist with scoring horses.  The top fourteen real lines on the competition's leaderboard were still up there because they all had Triolo d'Alene.  Then could come half-a-dozen possible lines from the shortlist, all without Triolo - but worth at least 12th place.  The new real leader, Aufdieloewen, was on 258.
07.12.13 - 197.4 pts - Sire de Grugy took the Tingle Creek chase for another 27.5 points.  A good result for the shortlist as none of the then real-leaders had that one.  The top fifteen lines on the competition's leaderboard were up there because they all had long-priced Hennessy winner Triolo d'Alene.  All but a couple of those lines had no Paddy Power Gold Cup selection in them, so looked to have been submitted during the week after the PPGC, taking advantage of the fact it was won by Johns Spirit, a horse not in the TTF competition.  A dozen of them, not unreasonably, had made their Hennessy pick the line's Star Horse thus earning the perverse fantasy-score of 100 points from just one race.  So, at this stage, no entered-lines without Triolo d'Alene in them were getting a piece of the action for real.  As far as the system was concerned, though, there were half-a-dozen possible lines that were each worth at least 7th place on the leaderboard without any Triolo d'Alene.  The real leader today, Roger27, was on 218.9.
01.12.13 - 169.9 pts - Jezki was the third winner already for the still experimental Misc Sctn rule.  169.9 points was worth a top thirty place behind the real leader on 215.4.
30.11.13 - 164.4 pts - Cue Card beat some top chasers in the Betfair Chase for 34.8 points (or 44.6 points for any followers who might have slipped it in as a w/c2 choice).
   A horse that was practically friendless - pre-competition - grabbed today's Hennessy Gold Cup at 20-1 (26.6 on the Tote).  Under the old scoring rules, Triolo d'Alene would have acquired 72 points (25 + 25 big-race bonus + 22 Tote-points allowance).  But, under the new Star Horse rule, it could get 100 points (25 + 25 big-race bonus + 26.6 Tote odds + 26.6 Star Horse fantasy points, capped to a maximum total of 100 points).  For an un-hyped handicapper to clock up nearly twice as many TTF points as a top-class chaser will get from winning the King George, or Cheltenham's Gold Cup, is controversial.  If Triolo progresses enough to go on and win another valuable race, that could make the task of trying to peg back the competition's couple of dozen early pace-setters, who all had it, extremely difficult.
25.11.13 - 124.6 pts - There was a wildcard in the No. 2 spot in the system's Paddy Power Gold Cup group because the ante-post 2nd fav, Johns Spirit, was not in the TTF.  Any line with that w/c2 in it could have used any horse, from any block, not already in the line in question, to fill the vacant slot (see w/c rule).
24.11.13 - 124.6 pts - Allowing Tote place-odds as scores for losers was a superb new TTF rule brought in only last season.  Thanks to that, a quarter of the horses in the shortlist (8) had already scored points after barely a week into this year's competition.  All eight scorers fell just right in the blocks, so could have been lined up for a score of at least 124.6 points, then worth 13th place on the leaderboard behind the real leader on 135.4.


Footnotes
How to use Capital Ratings' System for the Ten To Follow Competition
1.  Users of the system start off in early November each year with a blank template.  The blank template is exactly the same as the long table shown above - but without any horses' names in it.  Download blank template now for future seasons.  After unzipping, read the 'info.txt' file first.
2.  In the downloaded blank template, write or type the names of not more than 32 horses in the 36 spaces available in column 3.  The horses should be selected by using the rules in purple text in column 4.  Those rules ensure all followers start off with the same base selections.  The purple rules in col 4 are updated versions of Capital Ratings' original selection rules.  Adhere to those rules, and all the other selection rules given in the above table and on the associated Rules page, which is accessed via any of the blue rule-links in the main table.  The separate rules' page was copied from Capital Ratings' last published set of rules and has been suitably updated to reflect subsequent changes to the TTF competition's main rules.
3.  To make your entries, you can enter either (i) by post using entry forms in the Racing Post (back by popular demand for 2013-14 but 12 per line), (ii) online with the Racing Post, Betfred, Totesport or Totepool at www.tentofollow.com (10 per line) or (iii) using custom betting slips in Betfred shops if available.  The first two weeks in November each year form a hectic two-week window for finalising lines and entering them.
4.  System users should enter multiple lines of ten.  Tens should be picked in accordance with brown perming-note PN6 in column 3 in the shortlist.  Forget about looking outside of the shortlist for a possible 'dark horse' that nobody else will have.  There is almost never any need to think outside the box in this competition in order to win it.  Instead, work on the assumption that the shortlist will contain multiple rule-compliant winning lines in there somewhere - and concentrate all your skill and judgement on trying to perm one of those all-conquering lines from the shortlist into your entry.  No absolute guarantee, of course, that there always will be any winning lines in the shortlist but the system was terribly consistent over a span of 14 seasons when run by its inventors, Capital Ratings - and it has continued that trend in strong fashion in the subsequent two seasons since being raised from the dead here at byethost.com.
5.  The system obtains its qualifiers, each November, from the unique, highly informative, ante-post betting grids at oddschecker.com.  To locate their grids, go to www.oddschecker.com, look down the left hand side of the first page for a link labelled "Horse Racing" and click-it, at the new page scroll down until reaching, on the left hand side, a heading "Ante-Post Racing", just beneath that click either "National Hunt" or "Cheltenham Festival", then click the All Odds buttons to see the price grids for the system's key races.  The 'National Hunt' link gives access to grids, in early November, for three bonus-point races, namely the Paddy Power Gold Cup, Hennessy Gold Cup and King George.  The 'Cheltenham Festival' link gives access to price-grids, in early November, for another seven bonus-point races, namely the Arkle NC, Champion Hurdle,  RSA NC, Champion Chase, Ryanair Chase, World Hurdle and Gold Cup, plus grids for all the other, non-bonus 25-point Festival races.  In the grids, concentrate on the leading horses with the shortest, averaged prices, ignoring any odd-looking betting-exchange prices down the right hand side of each grid.  Just occasionally, it may look as though a grid has listed a couple of horses the wrong way round.  If that happens, work out the precise averaged-price for both horses to determine their proper pecking order in the grid.  Most grids will be pretty stable in the week before the deadline for entering the TTF but the odd couple might be quite volatile, especially the grids for the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Hennessy Gold Cup - so leave making the choices from any volatile grids as late as is practicable.



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